The 538 webpage, part of ABC news and originally set up by Nate Silver is running an ongoing biweekly survey of academic macroeconomic forecasters about the coronavirus recession. Allan Timmermann […]
Many older Americans reacted to the financial crisis of 2008 by deciding not to retire. Some who had retired went back to work if they could do so. And that […]
Seasonal adjustment is one of the more obscure potential casualties of the pandemic recession. A well known problem with seasonal adjustment is that an outlier observation will lead the seasonal […]
The United States may be on the verge of an unfortunate accomplishment rarely reached in the last century: a presidential four-year term in which real per capita GDP was lower […]
The private sector added jobs in May almost everywhere in the United States. The public sector lost jobs, also almost everywhere.
Those two trends seem likely to persist in the […]
Just how bad is the economic outlook? These days the answer seems to depend on the politics of the person being asked.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is released weekly, […]
By Kevin Heerdt and Jonathan H. Wright
Economic data released by the government and other entities are being distorted by normally acceptable statistical methods. The extreme economic data that are […]
There are 50 states, but only 13 where the 2016 presidential election was decided by a margin of less than eight percentage points. Six of them went for Hillary Clinton […]
Get ready for another crazy month on Wall Street. Months like March tend to come in pairs, at least as far as volatility goes.
Daily moves of 4% or more […]
No sooner was the ink dry on the March 27 $2 trillion stimulus package than Washington began work on the next stimulus. This is the right thing to do. Deficit […]
Two burning questions confront all of us:
How big is our public health problem?
How sharp is our economic retrenchment?
We think that the toolkit of economic forecasters has something […]
The global COVID-19 outbreak now sports exponential growth rates for cases and deaths on every continent save Antarctica. Students of the economy must add that we are also in the […]