538 survey of macroeconomists

The 538 webpage, part of ABC news and originally set up by Nate Silver is running an ongoing biweekly survey of academic macroeconomic forecasters about the coronavirus recession. Allan Timmermann at UC San Diego and I helped them with this and Bob Barbera is one of the panel members. The results of the fourth round were released yesterday.

Although the last two jobs reports have shown a decline in unemployment, the panelists are rather pessimistic about the outlook for growth and the labor market going forward. Respondents cited possible failure to extend fiscal stimulus as the dominant risk factor for growth in the rest of 2020.