Many older Americans reacted to the financial crisis of 2008 by deciding not to retire. Some who had retired went back to work if they could do so. And that […]
Seasonal adjustment is one of the more obscure potential casualties of the pandemic recession. A well known problem with seasonal adjustment is that an outlier observation will lead the seasonal […]
The United States may be on the verge of an unfortunate accomplishment rarely reached in the last century: a presidential four-year term in which real per capita GDP was lower […]
The private sector added jobs in May almost everywhere in the United States. The public sector lost jobs, also almost everywhere.
Those two trends seem likely to persist in the […]
The 538 webpage, part of ABC news and originally set up by Nate Silver, has just done a survey of academic macroeconomic forecasters about the coronavirus recession. Allan Timmermann at […]
Just how bad is the economic outlook? These days the answer seems to depend on the politics of the person being asked.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is released weekly, […]
By Kevin Heerdt and Jonathan H. Wright
Economic data released by the government and other entities are being distorted by normally acceptable statistical methods. The extreme economic data that are […]
There are 50 states, but only 13 where the 2016 presidential election was decided by a margin of less than eight percentage points. Six of them went for Hillary Clinton […]
Get ready for another crazy month on Wall Street. Months like March tend to come in pairs, at least as far as volatility goes.
Daily moves of 4% or more […]
No sooner was the ink dry on the March 27 $2 trillion stimulus package than Washington began work on the next stimulus. This is the right thing to do. Deficit […]
Two burning questions confront all of us:
How big is our public health problem?
How sharp is our economic retrenchment?
We think that the toolkit of economic forecasters has something […]
The global COVID-19 outbreak now sports exponential growth rates for cases and deaths on every continent save Antarctica. Students of the economy must add that we are also in the […]
The United States has become the world’s largest oil producer. That honor is likely to vanish, and with it a lot of companies.
If so – and it is almost […]
Crude oil prices plunged on Monday, as Saudi Arabia has announced that they will ramp up production to punish recalcitrant OPEC members, including and especially Russia. Rising supply alongside a […]
President Trump has frequently pointed to the performance of the stock market in praising his own performance, although not in the past week when markets worldwide came down with (fears […]
By Robert Barbera and Yingyao Hu
Our nighttime illumination estimate for 2018 Chinese growth, 4.2%, is roughly one third weaker than the Chinese official claim of a 6.5% climb for […]
One thing I learned during more than 40 years as a journalist is that the power to set the terms of the debate sometimes can be decisive in determining the […]
President Trump tweeted on Christmas Eve that he was “all alone (poor me).” It was a sentiment with which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could sympathize.
As 2018 came to a […]
By Bob Barbera and Yingyao Hu.
If there isn’t light in the 21st century world – or at least not as much light as economic statistics would suggest there should […]
The outlook for growth in employment and corporate earnings over the next few years is headed down.
The problem is not what the Federal Reserve will do, or what a […]
A growing chorus of commentators are now issuing warnings about additional Fed tightening in light of the flattening Treasury yield curve. Despite clear evidence that job growth in the U.S. […]