Many older Americans reacted to the financial crisis of 2008 by deciding not to retire. Some who had retired went back to work if they could do so. And that […]
Inside Baseball
Seasonal adjustment is one of the more obscure potential casualties of the pandemic recession. A well known problem with seasonal adjustment is that an outlier observation will lead the seasonal […]
NYT > Business > DealBook
NYT > Business > DealBook
2 days ago
Sorkin: How Investors Are Addressing Racial InjusticeView More
NYT > Business > DealBook
NYT > Business > DealBook
3 days ago
Sorkin: A Beverly Hills Hotel, Bought With Looted Money, Goes on SaleView More
Ross Margolies, '81: "I wish CFE had existed…
Suppressing YAP protein in T-cells gives immunotherapy a boost, researchers find
A Lost Four Years, But Better Than Hoover
The United States may be on the verge of an unfortunate accomplishment rarely reached in the last century: a presidential four-year term in which real per capita GDP was lower […]
Rachel Furhrman, ’17: "Investments…class was fascinating…
A Tale of Two Sectors
The private sector added jobs in May almost everywhere in the United States. The public sector lost jobs, also almost everywhere.
Those two trends seem likely to persist in the […]
538 survey of macroeconomists
The 538 webpage, part of ABC news and originally set up by Nate Silver, has just done a survey of academic macroeconomic forecasters about the coronavirus recession. Allan Timmermann at […]
Ellis Flannery, ’17: "helped me ace my interviews and ultimately succeed…
Study: pH imbalance in brain cells may contribute to Alzheimer’s disease
Republican View of Economy: Getting Worse, But Still Better than Obama
Just how bad is the economic outlook? These days the answer seems to depend on the politics of the person being asked.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is released weekly, […]
Niko Kotsoulas, '16: "FM&I class helped…
Beware of Seasonal Adjustment
By Kevin Heerdt and Jonathan H. Wright
Economic data released by the government and other entities are being distorted by normally acceptable statistical methods. The extreme economic data that are […]
Votes, deaths and layoffs
There are 50 states, but only 13 where the 2016 presidential election was decided by a margin of less than eight percentage points. Six of them went for Hillary Clinton […]
Market Volatility
Get ready for another crazy month on Wall Street. Months like March tend to come in pairs, at least as far as volatility goes.
Daily moves of 4% or more […]
The best kind of stimulus
No sooner was the ink dry on the March 27 $2 trillion stimulus package than Washington began work on the next stimulus. This is the right thing to do. Deficit […]
COVID-19 Data: Signal versus Noise
Two burning questions confront all of us:
How big is our public health problem?
How sharp is our economic retrenchment?
We think that the toolkit of economic forecasters has something […]
Embracing Distancing and Cushioning the Blow to the Economy
The global COVID-19 outbreak now sports exponential growth rates for cases and deaths on every continent save Antarctica. Students of the economy must add that we are also in the […]
Oily Disaster
The United States has become the world’s largest oil producer. That honor is likely to vanish, and with it a lot of companies.
If so – and it is almost […]
The Saudis, the Russians, the Chinese…and the Greens, Four Dimensional Chess in the Time of Corona
Crude oil prices plunged on Monday, as Saudi Arabia has announced that they will ramp up production to punish recalcitrant OPEC members, including and especially Russia. Rising supply alongside a […]
Trump stocks
President Trump has frequently pointed to the performance of the stock market in praising his own performance, although not in the past week when markets worldwide came down with (fears […]
China’s 2018 Economic Slowdown: Much Worse than the Official Tally
By Robert Barbera and Yingyao Hu
Our nighttime illumination estimate for 2018 Chinese growth, 4.2%, is roughly one third weaker than the Chinese official claim of a 6.5% climb for […]
Memo to the Fed: Remember 2008
One thing I learned during more than 40 years as a journalist is that the power to set the terms of the debate sometimes can be decisive in determining the […]
Gangbusters Jobs Growth and No Fed Tightening. A Snapshot Unlikely to Persist.
President Trump tweeted on Christmas Eve that he was “all alone (poor me).” It was a sentiment with which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could sympathize.
As 2018 came to a […]
China’s Slowdown: More There than Meets the Eye
By Bob Barbera and Yingyao Hu.
If there isn’t light in the 21st century world – or at least not as much light as economic statistics would suggest there should […]
Zero Bound
The outlook for growth in employment and corporate earnings over the next few years is headed down.
The problem is not what the Federal Reserve will do, or what a […]
Workers Return, Oldsters Retire, and the Jobless Rate Continues to Fall.
What did We Learn from Recent Monetary Policy Performance?
A growing chorus of commentators are now issuing warnings about additional Fed tightening in light of the flattening Treasury yield curve. Despite clear evidence that job growth in the U.S. […]
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